Warhammer sales prediction

Tobold started it, and since my comment was running long, I figured I would post my response here.

AoC sold around 750k units, and most attribute that to general MMO boredom. Since AoC really did not deliver all that it promised, many MMO gamers are still in boredom mode. Add those in with the large number of people who outright avoided AoC, all those burned out on WoW and looking at WotLK as more of the same, and I think a ‘safe’ bet is 1.5 million copies sold before 2009, with perhaps the upper limit being 3 million. 3 million however would make WAR a huge success, but I certainly think the market is capable of such numbers.

The big question of course is what happens after. If WAR delivers on the promises of RvR goodness, that number should continue to increase as word-of-mouth spreads. If that’s the case, I can see WAR reaching the 3-5 million mark in 2009. If RvR and WAR in general has some glaring flaws, expect the numbers to drop to around 500k subscribers.

After the first year, WAR’s success depends on how well Mythic continues to add and balance content, and just how much pull RvR has in keeping players interested. If DAoC is any indication, RvR done right certainly is more than capable of keeping people paying and playing.

15 Responses to Warhammer sales prediction

  1. Tipa says:

    If PvP is kept to something you have to specifically seek out, it will do well. Every time a PKer ganks a PvE/non-PvP player, they will lose another customer.

    The vast majority of people do not like uneven PvP, especially where they are the victims.

  2. Guy says:

    I would argue that the vast majority love uneven PVP when it’s in their favour, and hate uneven PVP when they’re outnumbered.

  3. Talyn says:

    I’d argue the “vast majority” prefer straight-up PvE…

    It’s primarily those who are “into” PvP in some capacity who are looking to Warhammer; the PvE-only players are going to be pissed that they bought the box. It’s their fault for being ignorant consumers, but the point still stands: they’ll see the box, buy it because it looks cool or whatever, and then find out it’s PvP-focused.

  4. Alex says:

    I would argue that all of these speculations are just that speculations. There isn’t a lot reason to expect WAR to be a particularly huge success. The whole reason why all of these other companies are pushing their own mythical fantasy-fiction MMO-s are that Blizzard/Vivendi were extremely successful in their efforts. But what was the main reason for their success? Their >>>>innovative<<<< approach of catering to the average computer gamer.

    Age of Conan and Warhammer are simply targeting niche markets. It takes a lot of effort to be entirely original and so far everyone is doing exactly what has already been done but with a different twist. That is hardly a recipe for success. You will not see another “WOW” until you see someone take a step into yet unexplored MMO territory. A simple example of such would be a science-fiction based MMO. Last thing we need is another rehash of Orcs and Elves; that’s exactly what Warhammer and Age of Conan are whether you want to admit it or not.

  5. Bonedead says:

    Iunno, maybe I’m just retarded (wouldn’t surprise me), but what innovation are you talking about Alex?

    If you consider taking all of the bells and whistles from every other MMO and bundling it all into your game, then yeah, they were pretty innovative. If making sure your game can run decently on crummier computers is innovative, then yeah, I guess they were. If tricking people in non MMO markets to switch to their “new” MMO market while letting the people think they were the first ones there, then yeah, I guess I’d say they were pretty innovative.

    What I don’t find innovative is that there are dungeons, mobs, pvp, pve, a warrior, rogue, priest, and mage class, with an over abundance of quests thrown in for good measure.

    I don’t know, what am I missing that was so innovative?

    /hijack :(

  6. Alex says:

    I said it before, and by request I’ll say it again. WOW delivers a solid, well-rounded game to the average (read: COMMON) player. You could say it was such a simple approach but it worked.

    PVP is a niche that currently only a fraction of gamers really appreciate. If WAR can actually somehow “trick” (as Bonedead puts it) people into getting more involved into PVP, then who knows? There might be a “new” king of MMO-s?

    Just because it’s easy to say now that what was done wasn’t original nor innovative doesn’t mean that they weren’t the first to do it and run with it.

  7. sid67 says:

    I kinda-sorta made this point on Tobold’s blog, but one think I think is important to remember about WAR is that success for Mythic doesn’t necessarily mean huge numbers.

    The important thing is that they develop a core subscriber base of at least 100,000 that will last four years. If they do that, then EA can break even on investment from the subscribtions alone. Retail box sales and additional subscriptions is where the profit kicks in.

    If they manage to sell a million copies (even if 900,000 of them don’t subscribe past the free month), then they stand to make around $35,000,000 in revenues from retail sales.

    During the entire lifecycle of the next four years, I have to think that 1 million copies and a concurrent user base of 350,000 accounts is a reasonable expectation. If they do that, they’ll be a moderately profitable venture for EA.

  8. [...] turn: Warhammer Sales Predictions Posted on August 12, 2008 by Rick I saw Syncaine take a stab at this, and he got the idea from Tobold. I’m well-versed in talking out me arse, [...]

  9. [...] is doing it, doing it, doing it. Making sales predictions for Warhammer that [...]

  10. [...] 1-2 million sales this year. /random explains why he goes for the lower bound of 1 million sales. Syncaine guesses higher at 1.5 million. Stropp gives a detailed explanation of why he estimates between 1.5-2.6mil sold by [...]

  11. Muckbeast says:

    WAR will not crack 1 million subscribers for at least a year… if at all.

    WoW has a zillion intangibles that no other game has, and they have families and grandmas among their subscribers. They won’t leave WoW, and you are very unlikely to find another game able to obtain those types of customers.

    -Cambios
    Blogging about Online Gaming and Virtual Worlds:
    http://www.muckbeast.com

  12. xaron says:

    your obvsiously new to the gamming world, who brought mmo’s to the world? Mythic= makers of Ultima Online, and Great game called Dark Age of Camelot.

    As a WoW player i think its a dead game and people play it still only because its their first mmo and thinking about all the work they put into it,

    All i got to say is that, for me its time to burry wow because WoW has a beast knocking at its door, WOTLK is a joke, gonna be the same old crap lvl cap new pvp gear wow soo innovative,

    WAR IS GONNA KICK ASS ULL SEE

  13. Mezth says:

    I think the big untold part of the equasion is how many warhammer fans that don’t play MMOs could this game attract?

    On a side note, I hope this game doesn’t knock WoW off the top. 4 years of main tanking, and full S3 before quiting my warrior… I really want a game that doesn’t have the mindless grind mass of typical wow players in it.

  14. Brian says:

    lol PvP is just what a fraction of players enjoy? um hello? WoW is gonzo about arena and patch the game around arena, they are going more PvP then ever, so Id say there is a huge market of players into PvP and Im sure either company will do well, our meaningless comments aside.

  15. Jace says:

    I have to agree with Brian. WoW is quickly becoming PvP based. Arena is taking over players attention, the gear is easier to get and better than most things from PvE, and what is Lich King offering, one of their biggest advertisements next to the Death Knight…Open World PvP areas and Siege Weapons. I think another thing in Warhammers favor is the fact that many players who have been playing WoW are ready for a change. Even if it’s the same package in a different box with twisted versions of the same features, it’s new, it’s fresh. Warhammer also has the huge fan base from the table top game. WoW is an homage to Warhammer, just as Starcraft is an homage to 40k. I dont know that WAR can dethrone the king, but I do believe it will give a good running. 1.5 million copies sold already from what I’ve seen. Off to a good start.

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