The next Bliz MMO, bye bye raiding, and a WAR 1.2 observation.

February 13, 2009

How much of a debate is there over what the next MMO from Blizzard will be? Originally Starcraft was a solid guess, but since StarCraft 2 will take 3+ years to be fully released, you can’t really launch an MMO in between delivering the full RTS product, can you? That leaves us with two options, a new IP and Diablo. A new IP MMO would be too risky now that Blizzard is a public company, and new ideas are not exactly Blizzard specialty (see SC:Ghost). This leaves us with Diablo, which conveniently has a new title set for release ‘soon’. Following the footsteps of Warcraft 3 and WoW, D3 will launch followed by a ‘sequel’ in Diablo Online. WoW will continue to slip further and further into kid-friendly MMO (Panda expansion anyone?), and D3-Diablo Online will aim for a more mature audience. Considering D3 has adopted a WoW-like hotbar for abilities, it will be interesting to see what direction the MMO version takes. Action-RPG-MMO done right? Yes please.

Jeff Kaplan leaving WoW might as well be the official ‘we don’t do raids here’ announcement. Considering WotLK launched with zero new multi-boss raid content, and the lighting pace the first actually new raid is being release at (‘soon’ right?), it’s hard to argue the direction WoW is moving in. While I personally don’t care much for the new direction, time (and market briefings) will tell the tale of its success. With anyone remotely interested in raiding already farming the current content, it will be difficult to change that pace by releasing noticeably more difficult content. If Uld is indeed a step up in difficulty for Nax-geared raiders, how exactly will that play out among the casual raid crowd? How tolerant will they be of guild-check encounters, considering Blizzard won’t be able to place the more traditional gear-check encounter (you can’t have a gear check if everyone already has the gear, now can you?).

Finally, I’m a bit surprised the WAR forums are not filled with more angst over 1.2. Fetch issue aside, it seems everything in 1.2 has been well received, and met with a general “lets see how it all plays out on test” attitude. Odd for the forums…

IMO WAR currently has a large ‘lurker’ population: people who moved on in the first 1-2 months because of certain issues that are still tracking the game and waiting for something to bring them back. The Choppa and Slayer will do it for some, and I think some of the more major changes to oRvR (keep redesign and such) will bring back others. If you left the game in the first 1-2 months, you will be surprised at how far WAR has come since release, both in terms of overall server activity and in code polish. It’s still far from perfect, but noticeable more enjoyable overall now than at release, and this will only increase once 1.2 goes live.


Some quick thoughts on WAR’s 1.2 patch notes.

February 12, 2009

The Warhammer Online patch notes for 1.2 are now available; if you have a few hours to spare check all 55 pages out. Its jaw-dropping how many changes are set to go in, the new systems being added, and just how much the crafting has been revamped. All that plus a boatload of career balance changes and overall RvR refinement. All this work while WAR has already had its share of live events, previous patches, two careers added, two more set to go in shortly, and the whole RvR dungeon/zone planned for release in a few months. Say what you want, but you have to give Mythic credit for the amount of effort they are pouring into WAR right now.

I’m not going to go over all 55 pages of the notes, but I do want to point out a few of my personal highlights. First up is the zone domination system.

* To earn a Domination Point from a Battlefield Objective, it must be owned by your realm for 30 minutes.

* To earn a Domination Point from a Keep, it must be claimed by a Guild and then held for 2 hours.

*If you lose control of a Battlefield Objective or Keep at any time, you lose the Domination Point.

This will be interesting, as two hours sounds like a rather lengthy amount of time, yet will also place a HUGE emphasis on defending your guilds keep. An hour or so of pre-lock keep capture, then a final objective push to lock the zone. At least if your alliance wants to lock a zone, they don’t have to rely on random scenario losses hurting your cause. Hopefully the end result of the system is a faster campaign, with more zone and fortress locks occurring through the week.

* RvR Hotspot icons will now scale based on the size of the battle. The tooltip has also been clarified to give an indication of how big the battle actually is. Hotspots will also be displayed on the racial pairing view and campaign UI tracker.

Finally, those battle icons will actually be useful. The map functionality in WAR has a lot of potential, but currently is a major hit/miss due to bugs or outdated information. Once it’s functioning at a level to really be relied on, it will be a huge tool for organizing RvR and getting everyone to the fight quicker.

* The Zone Control Bar can now be clicked to provide more details on each Zone Control Pool, including each contributing system, and who is winning the battle for each. This will tell you what your realm still needs to accomplish in order to conquer the zone!

This is huge. Finally players looking to seriously push a zone will know exactly what they need to focus on to move things along. With this in place, it will be interesting to see whether the system itself is the problem, or the lack of information about the system. Perhaps sending players to complete a PQ or scenario won’t be as painful if the players know exactly how many they need to complete.

* Public Quests will now always be displayed on the map even if the Tome of Knowledge Unlock for the Public Quest hasn’t been unlocked yet.

A nice change, this will give those out-of-the-way PQs some love, and make organizing and moving from PQ to PQ much easier. Hopefully this also fixes the bug that was not showing the PQ location on the map even after you had discovered it. The PQs themselves are great content when you have a group, so anything to help get players into those groups and to the PQs is a good step forward.

* Warband members will now show up on the minimap and zone maps.

Thank god. Another major step forward to helping players get organized and to the correct location in RvR. This change alone will go a long way to reduce the general confusion that currently plagues RvR.

* Characters that are in a party or warband and are disconnected from the game will have their spot in the party saved.

This is nice, as nothing was more annoying than having someone crash or disconnect in a full warband, and have that spot taken before they logged back in. It’s a small change, but the small changes overall add up.

I’ve yet to really go over the class changes, other than to notice that the DoK got buffed for healing, and that the WE career did not get as nerfed as some expected, especially if the changes to kisses now allows them to crit. Of course we will know a lot more once this patch is on test. Finally, as much as I dislike playing alts, it’s going to be tough not rolling a Choppa and seeing all of the greenskin zones fully. The greenskins are one of the more unique and entertaining races, so I’m looking forward to immerse myself in that.


Blood and Bile dungeons in WAR

February 11, 2009

Having now been a part of four complete Bloodwrought Enclave and Bilerot Burrow runs, I figured it would be a good time to break down why I think both dungeons do a great job filling their role in Warhammer Online.

For starters, both dungeons are short, especially Blood. A solid group will spend about 30-40 minutes clearing Blood, and between 60-90 minutes clearing Bile. In addition to being very manageable in a single night, you can take a break after any boss in either dungeon and not have trash mobs respawn the next day. If your realm really needs you in RvR, it’s easy to leave Blood/Bile and help out without taking a big step backwards. It also helps that both dungeons are in the capital city, making the travel time between them minimal.

Both dungeons also feature a solid theme, Blood being styled after the Blood god Khorne, Bile after Nurgle the god of disease. Bile in particular has some nice effects, with vile smoke and pulsing walls, very similar to AQ40 from WoW, but a bit more sickly rather an insect-like. The layout of both dungeons is fairly straight forward, although in Bile the sharp spiral turns might make it tough for newer players to spot mobs before they agro. Once you know the pulls however this becomes a non-issue.

In terms of difficulty Blood is fairly easy, with only the final boss offering any real resistance. The fight is interesting, and requires everyone in the group to stay sharp the entire time, but baring some bad luck he usually goes down on the first attempt. Bile is a bit more challenging, especially the trash mobs. Plague beasts in particular have a tendency to cause problems, as they must be kited in a circle while snared, and if bad pathing or a snare resist happens, the tank and the group might pay for it. Of the three bosses, one is a pure tank/spank, the other is a ward check, and finally the greater demon at the end, The Bile Lord, is an interesting fight with some fun mechanics (he swallows you at 20% similar to C’Thun in AQ40). A challenge for sure, but nothing overwhelming.

Both dungeons together drop the entire Sentinel gear set, with the greater wards needed for Lost Vale. The set itself is marginally better than the sets found in keep gold bags or from Bastion Stairs, but depending on class might be a better alternative for a particular spec. Along with set items, both dungeons drop random rank 39 BoE blue items, which can either be sold on the auction house for decent money or used to fill in any gear gaps a player might still have.

A three day reset timer, along with their relatively short time requirement, makes both dungeons the ideal ‘break’ from T4 RvR on a given night. They are challenging enough to keep you alert, while not being so difficult as to cause frustration or long nights. A token system would solve the frustration of getting unusable class items, but considering the effort required to clear both, this is again a minor issue IMO. With a few more drops, our group will be making its way into the final (for now) dungeon, Lost Vale, which is reportedly both much longer and more difficult.


Dear forum troll, a few questions.

February 10, 2009

This is what happens when you take a break and read some forums. You have been warned.

If you did not enjoy a city siege, did any of the following happen?

  • Get ganked on your way to the city entrance because you ran solo, repeatedly?
  • Tried to sneak in, rather than find/wait for a group to form and get in?
  • Enter an empty PQ instance because you wanted a chance for a lolbag?
  • Leave a PQ once it was contested, because you lost the PQ and did not get a chance for a lolbag?
  • Find an empty PQ boring, yet stay inside to chase the lolbag?
  • Ignore the siege leader and do your own thing? Do you know who your siege leader was?
  • Were you below rank 40, get smacked around by 40s, and feel ‘underwhelmed’?
  • Are you trying to run WAR on a toaster and a 14.4 modem with everything set to max? Do you blame the server lag, when you and your buddy are the only ones lagging?
  • Could you not figure out how to queue for the scenario or get into a PQ? Was no one able to figure it out in local/regional, or did you just not bother to ask/read?
  • Where you a key member in the initial push to open the city, or did you just show up once it happened? Have you ever been a key member in RvR, or do you just me-too along?

If any of the above applies to you, and you still blame the system rather than attempt to adjust your playstyle, please find a busy highway and play tag. Thanks.


Why the ward system in Warhammer Online is great.

February 10, 2009

Mythic announced the ward system in Warhammer Online sometime before launch, and unanimously the system was viewed as a gear check/block for the PvE content. You can only kill the king with 6 wards from the highest set, have fun farming PvE in a RvR game!

Now that players have actually experienced the system and see how it works, I think the ward system has shown its true colors. It’s a gear check/block for PvE content, but with an RvR twist. Ever compare the stats of the lesser ward set to that of the superior ward set? The superior set is better, but in most cases only marginally better, small enough to… wait for it… not determine the outcome of a PvP fight. Shocker.

Without the ward system, a rank 40 character in basic gear would be able to skip all of Bastion Stairs, all of the rank 40 city dungeons, and jump straight into the highest level PvE content (Lost Vale) and be successful. They would have an easier time with better gear, but since the differences are minimal, it unlikely they would outright fail unless the encounters were tuned towards impossible. The ward system enables Mythic to mimic other MMOs in its tiered PvE content, while not screwing the balance of its RvR to be a game of who farmed more gear.

It’s a lesser of two evils, a gear check for PvE to maintain relative item balance in RvR, and in a MMO with a true focus, great RvR, that makes a lot of sense.


The Inevitable City under siege!

February 9, 2009

This weekend I had more fun in an MMO than I can remember in a long, long time. I logged into vent around 8pm EST on Saturday just to see what everyone was up to, and right away it was obvious something big was going down. Vent was packed, people were talking in a bit of a panic, and general uncertainty was the mood. Order had locked down a Fortress and were pushing Chaos Waste to attempt a second Fortress lock.

On the Monolith server Destruction has locked a single Fortress a few times, and lately Order has been able to push a Fort as well. Neither side has ever locked two Forts down and opened a capital up. That changed Saturday night.

I logged on, joined one of our alliances warbands (I believe we had three going), and flew over to Chaos Waste (CW) just as Order locked Praag. Within a very short span of time, Order had sieged and captured both keeps in CW almost simultaneously. They then hit the four battle objectives hard, and had all four captured. It was impossible to judge exactly how many people total were in the CW zone, but it had to be well over 300 counting both sides. While the client did lag when the zerg rolled over you, the zone did not crash and overall everything was more than playable. Seeing that many people was crazy though, I remember at one objective I could not see the ground thanks to all the red names around me, and any direction I looked I just saw a sea of red (I was good and dead at this point).

Destruction was generally unorganized, and while we made a push to capture one of the objectives, overall it only slowed the inevitable, CW locking down and the The Maw fortress opening up. Order must have had a master plan and great leadership that night, because as soon as The Maw opened, they hit it hard with a coordinated strike, and that too soon fell. For the first time on Monolith, a capital city was open for attack, and the under populated side (according to Mythic) had just beating the dominant force soundly.

As the capital siege was new to everyone, confusion was king. Some people were in the instanced 48 vs 48 PQs in the city, others were at the capital door in The Maw, and still others were in a new, massive scenario. We figured out the system eventually (get into the PQ at the main gate to the city, taking a scenario puts you out of the PQ after the scenario ends, you can’t be in a warband when you enter the PQ if you want to switch which PQ you enter), but for that first hour or so, it was chaos both in-game and on vent.

After the first hour or so of the siege, Order was gaining victory points (the city functions in a similar manner to an RvR zone for the 6 hour siege, blocking normal access), but then seemed to stall. From what info I could gather, Order made the decision to call off the coordinated push, and instead focus on gearing up for a future push through the PQs. If the attackers win the PQ, they get three gold bags which contain Invader gear (on par to the highest level PvE gear set from Lost Vale), if the defenders win, they get a chance (25% maybe?) for one gold bag. Basically the defenders need to play the role of spoiler, denying the attackers the gear they need to push further into the city (if you lock the first stage of the city siege, you open up additional content that requires the Superior wards you get from Invader or Lost Vale sets). It was at this point that our alliance got a bit more organized, and we proceeded to jump from PQ to PQ (five different copies were running at the same time), getting into the highest Order population PQ and denying them victory. We realized farming the PQ ourselves was a losing battle (chance of one gold bag vs a guaranteed three), so we ignored the bags and instead focused on stopping the larger groups of Order players. We had some epic battles (all with flawless server performance during the entire siege), often jumping into the PQs just in time to stop Order from advancing.

At that point, with less than an hour remaining on the city siege timer, it was 4am EST and I had been online for more or less 8 hours straight, as had the majority of our warband. Exhausted yet hyped, we logged off.

Through the night, despite being on the losing side for much of it, everyone was excited. Excited to see new content (both the city PQ and scenario are very well done), excited to be part of the servers first city siege, and more than anything, excited to finally see the WAR campaign progress past locking zones. With the campaign progressing as fast as it did, there was zero downtime or waiting. At all times, warbands were moving in an attempt to cut an enemy off, to steal an objective, or just to break through and get players into a fortress or the capital. At times we operated as a 6 man group, picking off stragglers, while at others we moved 3+ warbands strong to try and brute force an objective or Order chokepoint. We killed, we died, we gained renown, and overall just had a great time.

The day after, the realization that Monolith Destro was horribly unorganized set in. Order had been successful the night before not because they had better gear or more people, but because they were all on one page and moving as one group, rather than a collection of scattered warbands. The events on Saturday also went a long way to get people excited about the game again, giving us a small taste of what the whole T4 campaign is all about. We want to see Aldorf burn, and in order for that to happen, the different alliances and guilds are going to have to put petty differences aside and get to work. Ultimately success in WAR is not about who has the best gear or the highest renown rank, its about working together with your realm, out-organizing the other side and proving which side has the superior players. On Saturday, Order won the first battle, but in doing so has inspired Destruction to get our shit together and really fight back. We no doubt have some epic battle ahead of us, and I for one can’t wait.


Storms, tourist, and failure: The MMO market

February 6, 2009

2009 is not 2004, yet after reading this post over at TAGN, it sure seems that way. Let’s define the environment WoW launched in first, because John’s recount seems to have forgotten a few minor details.

1) EQ2 launched just before WoW, pulling players out of their established EQ1 communities. While EQ2 now is a very stable game, it was near unplayable in 2004, conveniently displacing the biggest PvE crowd of MMO gamers. WoW, the better EQ1 clone, launches shortly after and avoids the mistakes made by EQ2, mainly the unreasonably high system requirements. Blizzard did not take the MMO crown from SOE, they handed it over on a silver platter.

2) DAoC saw it’s Trials of Atlantis expansion release in late 2003, an expansion Mythic themselves admitted was a giant mistake. ToA basically screwed the game for its core audience, changing the focus from an RvR game to PvE raiding. While still popular in 2004, players were dying for an excuse to leave it thanks to ToA. The pre-launch hype of WoW featuring PvP, with the whole Horde vs Alliance setup (it’s the core of the game, right Blizzard), was a nice draw for DAoC players.

3) UO/AC/EQ1: The big three of the first generation, by 2004 they all looked horribly outdated. UO was pseudo 3D, EQ1 looked like a bunch of blocks fighting it out, and AC was the ‘me too’ game of the bunch. WoW looked like the Mona Lisa compared to any of those games. Not to mention that all three were already deep into cash-cow mode in 2004. The leap in computing power, and the general acceptance of graphics cards by the masses between 1997 and 2004 is not an easily ignored factor.

4) It’s nice to think WoW had this perfect launch, and by 2004 standards it sure seemed like it. If fact, it was so perfect, Blizzard handed out weeks worth of free account time to players due to servers being down for 8+ hours at a time, and server queues of an hour+. If you happen to pick one of the ‘troubled’ servers in the early days, it was not uncommon 3-5 MONTHS after release for that server to still be down for extended maintenance. Had SOE launched EQ2 anywhere near playable, all those WoW players watching their server status in red might have had a place to go, but in 2004 WoW was it. Taken out of that perfect environment, what would happen to a new MMO today if their servers were down during prime time for weeks or months after release?

5) WoW was viewed as a sequel of sorts to Warcraft 3, the most popular RTS game at the time, meaning it not only entered the market when MMO fans were looking towards the next-gen games, but also brought a swarm of internet-ready gamers looking to continue playing a Warcraft game. It also launched during the economic boom of late 2004, long after the fallout of the dot-com era was over.

In short, late 2004 was a ‘perfect storm’ of sorts to launch an MMO. The current king shot himself in the foot, removing himself right before your arrival. The previous king told his core audience to screw, and gaming itself was moving out of its nerd niche and into the mainstream thanks to Sony and the Playstation brand. Oh yea, and WoW was a great game.

But let’s keep that greatness in perspective. WoW is not 10x better than LotRO/EQ2/WAR/EVE, and because of that amazing greatness it has reach its 4-5 million US/EU players. It’s a polished EQ1 clone, and it’s a pop sensation, propelled by its own popularity. It’s the equivalent of Britney Spears in music, Titanic in movies, or The Sims or Myst in gaming. You reach a certain popularity point, and people buy it because everyone else is doing it. The masses are lemmings, this is not news.

And those same lemmings now are indeed the MMO tourist population, jumping into WAR and thinking the sewers in Aldorf are going to be The Deadmines, or that RvR will be sitting and waiting for them whenever they log on, be it during prime time or 5am on a Monday. That the same pattern they followed in WoW will apply to any and all future MMOs. Then they will turn around and demand innovation, but only if that innovation is as polished as the copied, refined, and safe features they are use to.

To bring things back to John’s post, he wrote: “You can cry “jaded gamer!” all you like, but for what other audience was WAR shooting?” 300k IS the jaded gamer audience, 4-5 million is the non-MMO-playing casual market, and a portion of that 4-5 million will take one month trips into each new shiny that launches, only to return home regardless of their recent vacation spot. It also helps when you release a paint-by-numbers expansion for a content-starved game, packing 2 years of development time into an upfront, quick, and ultimately shallow experience, another market condition that simply did not exist in 2004.

That line John talks about at the end of his post is not the line between success and niche, it’s the line between casual gaming and the MMO market. As THQ recently learned, chasing that casual market is not as easy as it seems, and while you might get lucky and strike it rich, more often than not the lemmings won’t even notice you.


Tons of new WAR info!

February 5, 2009

Here

Still reading it, thoughts later. Enjoy!


MMO growth after release in the post-WoW market

February 5, 2009

Whenever you debate a topic concerning MMOs, it’s a safe bet someone is going to bring up EVE and show you a counter-example to whatever you are trying to say. Impact PvP does not work: EVE. Complex economies are impossible in an MMO: EVE. Sci-Fi is not a profitable setting for an MMO: EVE. You must have a class-based game: EVE. And finally, and today’s topic, an MMO peaks and then slowly declines over time: EVE.

The problem with that last example is, up until recently, EVE was the ONLY example of a bad launch followed by noticeable and continued growth. I know Anarchy Online did it, but to such a lesser extent it’s hard to use it as another example. UO, EQ1, AC, DAoC, SWG, etc, all hit a peak and then declined. Expansions would renew interest, but never back to the original peak, and those past MMOs went into ‘cash cow’ mode with more limited support and updates.

LotRO had a very good launch, and at the time was considered a solid title. The problem was it was solid at doing what WoW was doing VERY well, PvE. The game never delivered on the hype of the LotR setting being a license to print money, and even LotRO’s own pre-release advertising of “join millions of players”, and shortly after launch was not considered a success. Yet with its recent expansion, LotRO by all accounts has grown and established its own spot in the MMO space, separating itself from WoW in both community and features. It’s not exactly EVE’s 5 years of growth, but it’s still a major MMO gaining players after its initial peak.

Titles like EQ2 and Vanguard have also seen renewed interest after disappointing launches, if not exactly LotRO or EVE growth.

As with the WoW tourist that now hit any new MMO, I believe WoW also contributes a second type of player; ones brought into MMO gaming by WoW, but who also go out and look into other titles. The difference between this group and the tourists is they ARE looking for something other than WoW, either having burned through WoW’s content or simply wanting something complex/different/not neon. The problem for the industry as a whole is that the tourists heavily outnumber the ‘potential MMOer’, yet those players are out there thanks to WoW. The other challenge is those recent WoW players go into other games expecting 5 years of MMO patching in a new game, and don’t tolerate crashing or bugs (despite coming from an MMO which had similar issues during its own launch). These unrealistic expectations no doubt help create more tourists than future fans.

The long and short of it is that in the current market, we can expect a few things to happen with any new MMO. Pre-launch hype (both company and fan created) that ultimately won’t live up to expectations. A launch with both core fans and tourists, likely rougher thanks to the over-abundance of players. The ‘bitch and whine’ phase as tourists leave because magically MMO X was in fact, not WoW, stopping by the forums to post look-at-me “I quit” posts. They also take their guild/friends/cat with them, because they are ‘kind of a big deal’ and really influential. At this point two things can happen. Either your MMO goes the way of NCSoft and gets canned regardless of its inevitable potential, or goes the EVE/LotRO/EQ2 path and maintains its core player base, improves its game, and reaches its potential, which was never to be a WoW-killer but a profitable venture.

WAR is currently in the post-tourist phase. The attention-whores have made their ‘I quit’ posts, the forum trolls have moved on from the forums (mostly), and WAR is making its way towards its final potential. It’s not there yet, and even the most optimistic people know it’s a good 2-3 MAJOR patches away. Unless you just outright HATE PvP (and that’s cool), people can see that WAR has a solid base to build from. The engine works well for PvP, the classes are interesting, the setting/theme fits, etc. Lets hope EA sees it that way as well, and gives Mythic the time it needs to make the necessary changes and tweaks, rather than shut it down and waste a ton of potential.


300k, has Mythic pulled a Failcom and Flagshipped WAR?

February 4, 2009

Remember back in the summer of 2008 we were all making WAR subscriber predictions, and we figured they would be in the range of 1-100 million, depending on how high your fanboy rating was? Everyone reasoned that if WoW can get 11 million, WAR can at least get a few million right?

Just like all the other MMOs with a million+ subscribers…

I’ll be up front and say that initially I thought the 300k number was low and disappointing. While WAR had its issues at launch (and a few still persist), in the grand scheme of the MMO world it had a good launch and is a very stable product. Plus personally I’ve had a damn good time with it, as have the regular members of CoW that I play with. Even MMO newbie Aria (my fiancé) enjoys it, and she has a short fuse when it comes to frustration, be it for technical reasons or her witch elf being blown up repeatedly by a bright wizard.

But if we enter the land of make-believe, and pretend WoW does not exist, how does 300k stack up? It’s around LoTRO and EVE numbers, and it beats EQ2, CoH, AoC, ect. Basically, it’s close (if not at) the goal of being #2 in the market, with the perception problem being you are a VERY distant second. I’ve said this many times here and elsewhere, but its worth repeating, if your MMO is budgeted around WoW-like numbers, you are going to fail even if you deliver the baby jesus of the MMO world. The 11 million people playing WoW are not MMO players, and they never will be. The kids/moms/dads/grandmas etc playing WoW won’t make the jump to the next shiny that’s released, and the MMO tourists that WoW has created won’t stick around past a month of ANY new MMO (which may also include Blizzards next MMO btw). We always talk about rose-tinted glasses when we talk about UO or EQ right? 10 million people are wearing WoW-tinted glasses, and those aren’t coming off anytime soon.

Moving beyond the “my MMO has more subs than yours, hahaha!” aspect of 300k, what does that actually mean for WAR’s future? It’s a high enough number to justify WAR’s continued development with a full crew, for one, meaning the game is here to stay. It also means that as WAR improves (and it has a LOT of room for improvement due to its solid fundamentals and the difficulty of getting a PvP-base game ‘right’), that 300k number will go up. The shine of WotLK continues to dull, and if recent CoW member movement is any indication, some of those players will be giving WAR another shot. I think a common thread we saw with WAR early on is people liked the concepts, but too many issues prevented people from fully enjoying the game as a whole. With the release of WotLK, those people had the perfect excuse to move away from WAR and enjoy WoW again, knowing could always give WAR another shot once it has been fixed up. I think we are starting to see the beginning of that process, and with WAR’s full content schedule coming in the next few months, it will give people more and more reasons to give WAR a second look.

One would think being horribly wrong on one prediction would teach you a lesson, but here goes my 2009 prediction: 500k+ by the end of 09, securing the #2 spot without debate. I have faith that Blizzard will continue its snails pace of delivering content, and making WotLK so easy is going to burn them. Along with that, I really believe WAR is 1-2 patches away from getting its end-game where it needs to be to really hook people, and the buzz from a successful city siege will go a long way to raising peoples attention (think EVE tournament or some of the other major stories that draw people in). Fanboy optimism? Of course, I’m a fan of the game after all, and I believe in its design. I think there exists a spot for it in the MMO space, just like DAoC had its spot among EQ1 and company. Mythic just needs to step up to the plate and finally deliver that one set of changes that will finally get T4 RvR where it needs to be, that perfect balance between making a city siege possible, but still rare enough to make it something special.


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