(Stats and writeup by Delpez)

I’ve been working on a model to determine the likely number of stars one can achieve with dragon attacks, based on the defensive strength of the war base. More data is required, but in its current form the model can estimate the minimum number of stars we should achieve against each base. I’ve also color coded (note: colors don’t show up so went with the first letter of each color where applicable) the TH7&8’s based on air defense strength. A more detailed explanation will follow after the table:

The table shows the minimum number of stars we should achieve, not the number of stars we can (and should) get. Also keep in mind that the minimum stars for TH9&10 bases are solely based upon player experience; until I can figure out a better way to classify high level bases. For example, their #1 is at level 107, and we usually score one star against TH10 bases in that level range. Their #2 is a level 87 TH10, which we usually 3-star and their #3 is a TH9 at level 102, which we’ve 2-starred in the past. It’s not a great way to calculate minimum stars, but should do for now.

The numbers for TH8’s are based upon the strength of their air defenses, and to a lesser extent the archer and wizard towers (I’m looking at dragon attacks only). We often ignore the towers for dragon attacks, but they can deal a lot of damage and clean up after the air defenses are down. The color code indicate the following (also included are the suggested dragon level and spells).

Note that the table refer to TH8 only; at TH7 any level dragons with Lightning should be enough. Also keep in mind that I don’t consider base layout, thus a flawed base with strong defences could be 3-starred by lower level dragons or different spells.

According to these rules, we should score a minimum of 118 stars – which I don’t think will be enough this war. Also keep in mind that the number of expected stars at the TH9&10 level is a risk – I don’t think we have enough powerful high level attacks to achieve all those stars. So we need to compensate for those stars, as well as score some additional to get above 118. This can only be done by getting 3-stars against the tough TH8 bases, and we can achieve that via the following:

Our lower level TH9’s getting 3-stars against tough TH8 bases. This would compensate directly if we fall short at the higher levels.

Our TH8’s getting 3-stars with dragons against tough TH8 bases. This requires skill and some luck, but the more attacks we can throw at those strong TH8’s, the more 3-stars we’ll get. However, this also requires us to get our expected 3-stars with the least number of attacks. If we spend the entire war cleaning up after easy bases, we’ll have less attacks to throw at strong TH8 bases.

Our TH8’s using Hogs or GoWiPe. The minimum stars are based on dragon attacks, so it’s possible that some of the strong air defence TH8’s are weak against ground troops.

Finally – it crucial that we get our expected stars before trying for the bonus stars. For example, if their numbers 20 and 25 both have 2-stars against them, first get the 3-star off 25. The sooner we can get all our expected stars (at TH8), the more attacks we’ll have left to go for the win.