CoC: War stats vs MMA Gaming 1/25/15

January 27, 2015

(Stats and writeup by Delpez)

Supreme Cream! vs. MMA Gaming

Supreme Cream

Enemy

Average TH Level

7.98

8.16

Average Player Level

72.07

75.18

Score

111

111

Total Attacks Used

80

85

Total 3 Star Attacks

29

27

Total 3 Star %

36.25

31.8

3 Stars Against Same Level

22

13

3 Star % Against Same Level

39.3

23.6

3 Stars Against Lower Level

3

12

3 Star % Against Lower Level

30.0

50.0

TH7 3 Stars

8

7

TH7 3 Stars %

66.7

63.6

TH7 3 Stars (same level)

4

3

TH7 3 Stars % (same level)

80.0

75.0

TH8 3 Stars

20

15

TH8 3 Star %

43.5

27.8

TH8 3 Stars (same level)

17

10

TH8 3 Star % (same level)

42.5

24.4

TH8 Ave Stars / Attack (same level)

2.2

1.7

TH9&10 3 Stars

1

5

TH9&10 3 Star %

6.3

25.0

TH9&10 3 Stars (same level)

1

0

TH9&10 3 Star % (same level)

9.1

0.0

TH9&10 Ave Stars / Attack (same level)

1.27

1.40

Another draw, and it was nail-biting stuff! Our opponents scored the final two stars to draw level after the whistle had sounded (attacks count if they are launched just before time runs out). They were quite a bit stronger than us in terms of TH level, and slightly stronger from an experience level point of view. However, I think generally the clans were well matched. Looking at the numbers, things were pretty equal at the TH7 level, while our TH8’s smashed them hard. They compensated for this by scoring more stars against our top bases, which allowed their TH9&10’s to get five 3-stars against our TH8 bases. The next table shows the stars left by TH level:

Supreme Cream! Enemy
TH10 8 4
TH9 7 13
TH8 9 7
TH7 0 0
Sum 24 24

They clearly sacrificed stars against our TH10 bases (only got 1 from 9), which allowed them to get more against our TH9’s and TH8’s. We did particularly badly against their TH9’s, only getting 8 stars from a potential 21. We were in a similar position some months ago when lots of our players reached TH8. The same guys are now freshly promoted TH9’s; basically TH8 in terms of power level. It’s extremely hard for a new TH9 to make much headway against top bases. In the short term this situation will probably get worse, as more TH8’s level up. Until the new TH9’s get their power level up, attacks from our established top level players will be at a premium.

As far as the pre-war analysis is concerned, the following table shows the minimum stars and what we actually achieved:

Base Number

Base Strength

Minimum Stars

Actual Stars

Diff

1

1

1

2

3

2

-1

3

2

1

-1

4

2

1

-1

5

1

2

1

6

3

0

-3

7

3

0

-3

8

3

3

9

3

1

-2

10

3

2

-1

11

Strongest

2

2

12

Strongest

2

2

13

Strongest

2

3

1

14

Hard

2

3

1

15

Strongest

2

2

16

Strongest

2

2

17

Strongest

2

3

1

18

Hard

2

3

1

19

Hard

2

3

1

20

Strongest

2

2

21

Strongest

2

2

22

Medium

3

2

-1

23

Medium

3

3

24

Medium

3

3

25

Medium

3

3

26

Easy

3

3

27

Easy

3

3

28

Easy

3

3

29

Medium

3

3

30

Easy

3

3

31

Medium

3

3

32

Easy

3

3

33

Easy

3

3

34

Easy

3

3

35

Easy

3

3

36

Easy

3

3

37

Easy

3

3

38

Easy

3

3

39

Easy

3

3

40

Easy

3

3

41

Easy

3

3

42

Easy

3

3

43

Easy

3

3

44

Easy

3

3

45

Easy

3

3

Total

118

111

I clearly overestimated our stars against top bases, which is partly due to the model needing more data and partly due to the limited number of powerful top level attacks we have. At TH7&8 we did extremely well, hitting the minimum target for all bases bar one. Note that it’s not expected to get a 3-star every time you attack easy or medium bases. In fact, I think it’s easier to get two stars against a strong base than three stars against a medium base. The minimum number only reflects the amount of stars we should achieve by war end against a particular base, even if it takes three attacks to get there. Obviously the less attacks we use on easy bases, the more is left against stronger bases.


BB: Task Force increased to 25, get in here!

January 23, 2015

Quick Boom Beach Task Force (guild) update; I’ve raised the limit up to 25 people as we hit the 10 man cap quickly. Join up! Task Force name is Hardcore Casual, tag is #GQULQR2. Most of us are new to the game so now is a great time to jump in.

We are currently 1/2 in Operations. We easily beat the first, but on the second couldn’t finish the final base, though we were basically one more attack away. They are definitely fun, and a good change of pace from CoC wars.


ESO: We are teaching console players what now?

January 22, 2015

Quick note, because I’ve seen a few blogs state that ESO is dropping the required sub price in part because console players ‘don’t get how that works’.

Quick, name the most successful console MMO to date (notably not a really high bar, but still).

If you said FFXIV, you are paying attention. And what model does FFXIV follow? The sub model. Funny how that big nasty barrier of entry hasn’t resulted in disaster for a worthwhile game, almost like players, console or otherwise, are able and willing to pay money for something that doesn’t suck. Crazy world we live in indeed.


CoC: MMA Clash pre-war statistics and analysis

January 22, 2015

(Stats and writeup by Delpez)

I’ve been working on a model to determine the likely number of stars one can achieve with dragon attacks, based on the defensive strength of the war base. More data is required, but in its current form the model can estimate the minimum number of stars we should achieve against each base. I’ve also color coded (note: colors don’t show up so went with the first letter of each color where applicable) the TH7&8’s based on air defense strength. A more detailed explanation will follow after the table:

Read the rest of this entry »


LotRO: You’ll never see Mordor

January 22, 2015

Let’s talk about LotRO!

Actually let’s not talk about the content of LotRO, because why make everyone suffer, but instead let’s talk about how things have gone for the game overall, and specifically under F2P.

Spoiler alert: LotRO is a third-tier (at best) MMO right now, and F2P is in part to blame.

In 2007, prior to release, LotRO looked like a serious ‘WoW-killer’, and that term wasn’t a joke back then. The pre-release advertising for LotRO said you should join “the millions of other players”, which shows you what Turbine expected out of the title. Also back in 2007, Turbine wasn’t yet in the SOE/Trion bin of developers we love to watch fall on their face; they were respected thanks to Asherons Call and even DDO (while DDO wasn’t a breakout hit, it did well-enough, and not being a huge failure is actually a compliment in the MMO genre).

Plus yea, it had the freaking LotR IP, easily one of the hottest IPs in gaming back then. License to print money really, just like the Sims or Star Wars! :rimshot:

LotRO at launch was solid. No, it wasn’t a WoW-killer, not even close, but it wasn’t a bad MMO. Unlike WoW, it took its lore very seriously, had solid storytelling, and back then did a bunch of stuff different-enough to hold its own, at least for a bit, and the numbers reflected that.

Then for a bunch of reasons, it got worse. Major mistakes were made, people left, and overall Turbine was slipping towards the Turbine we know and laugh at today.

The game went F2P, and, much like with DDO, Turbine released a big “congrats to us!” press release about how awesome F2P was for the game. F2P fans STILL link to that thing (can’t get to it now, someone link it for me please?) as evidence of F2P working, and more than a few people still hold that time as if it were a reflection of today or even the last few years.

Only it didn’t work, because between that press release and today things are very different. There was never a follow-up “F2P is still awesome!” press release. Turbine had a bunch of layoffs. They started to get desperate with the game, to the point of basically selling you The One Ring in the cash shop, among other typical F2P model garbage cash grabs like ad spam and immersion-destroying fluff. LotRO no longer has expansions, and the big outstanding question now for the game is whether the story wraps up before the game goes offline. (Easy money is on offline)

Saying that F2P ‘saved’ LotRO is wrong beyond the fact that the game is still online, and we don’t know if LotRO would still be online if Turbine had kept it as a sub MMO. Most likely not (and of course no one still with Turbine would admit to it anyway), especially given what Turbine became, but unless your ultimate goal with a game is to scrap by for a bit after gutting your studio of employees, LotRO isn’t an example of success; it’s just another example of the F2P price; you get a short-term bump at the cost of any long-term hope.

The real problem is that when talking F2P MMOs, there are no examples of success. The current “hey it worked!” example from some is SW:TOR, a game that originally EA hoped would have 1m subs, then later cut that to 500k, and despite having by far the largest MMO budget and a ‘can’t miss’ IP, still didn’t produce a game good enough to even get that. F2P hasn’t ‘saved’ SW:TOR, as the game still isn’t close to meeting expectations, nor has it risen above mediocrity (I believe it has 1m ‘active accounts’, which is a joke when you consider all of the above). Again, unless ‘success’ in F2P land is “the game is still online”, SW:TOR isn’t a success. It’s not (yet?) at LotRO-levels of failure, sure, but being better than that is still a long way away from success.

And SW:TOR is the BEST example of F2P non-failure that I can think of. If we use EQ2 as the example here, it’s not even a conversation, to say nothing of what effect F2P had on ArcheAge, or the AA-before-AA example, Allods (which as far as I know, is the only MMO to partly move from F2P to a full sub option, which was well-received).

This conversation would be far more interesting if we had even one FFXIV-level example of F2P MMO success (asking for EVE longevity or just WoW overall success is asking way too much), but we don’t. We never have, yet some still tout the model as the new or current formula for success. The ‘formula’ hasn’t yielded a single positive result people. Not. A. One. In what other industry is something that has never provided successful given so much credit? Literally banana land going on here, but that is the MMO genre.


ESO: Is it finally multiplayer Skyrim?

January 21, 2015

So ESO is going B2P (pending what the cash shop contains, but I doubt they are going to sell you hotbars or guns out of planes), which is of some interest to me. While I wasn’t in love with ESO after the first zone, it’s not a game I hated either, and so being able to fire it up and check it out, without it reeking of the usual stench of a F2P MMO, has my interest.

Two questions though.

What exactly is the B2P model going to be? It can’t be the failed GW2 model, where (at least while I kept my eye on the game) spending extra was borderline pointless (crappy looking fluff and nothing else). I think, if they can pull it off, having $5-$10 DLC ‘mission packs’ ala Payday 2 would work for them, but only if the quality was high and the release pace was decent. If it’s one bleh pack every six months, that’s not going to work.

How much better is ESO today than it was in the first month or so of release? If it’s generally the same game, that’s not good. If its far closer to the game most of us wanted it to be (again, multiplayer Skyrim or something at least close), that would be great. If I can play a little ESO with a few friends whenever we want, tossing the devs a five or ten every month or two, I could see that working.

 


Credit to Massively for this one

January 20, 2015

Granted, the good stuff is quotes rather than the writing/opinion of Massively, but still, this article about how Das Tal will be better than ArcheAge made me smile.

That said, setting the bar at “better than AA” is like setting a person goal of not killing yourself today; aim a little higher maybe? My dog could launch and run an MMO better than Trion, and my dog is really, really dumb.


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