Warhammer sales prediction

Tobold started it, and since my comment was running long, I figured I would post my response here.

AoC sold around 750k units, and most attribute that to general MMO boredom. Since AoC really did not deliver all that it promised, many MMO gamers are still in boredom mode. Add those in with the large number of people who outright avoided AoC, all those burned out on WoW and looking at WotLK as more of the same, and I think a ‘safe’ bet is 1.5 million copies sold before 2009, with perhaps the upper limit being 3 million. 3 million however would make WAR a huge success, but I certainly think the market is capable of such numbers.

The big question of course is what happens after. If WAR delivers on the promises of RvR goodness, that number should continue to increase as word-of-mouth spreads. If that’s the case, I can see WAR reaching the 3-5 million mark in 2009. If RvR and WAR in general has some glaring flaws, expect the numbers to drop to around 500k subscribers.

After the first year, WAR’s success depends on how well Mythic continues to add and balance content, and just how much pull RvR has in keeping players interested. If DAoC is any indication, RvR done right certainly is more than capable of keeping people paying and playing.

Posted in Warhammer Online | 15 Comments

Waiting…

Server is down, waiting…

:the pain:

Also currently debating what server type to plan on. Leaning towards open, but CoW (the blogger and friends guild) are going standard. Guess knowing a bit more about how the tiers are layed out should help with that decision. The thought that I might be playing a PvP game on a ‘carebear’ server does not sit well with me, but again, I’ll have to see how it all works in beta.

Posted in Warhammer Online | 6 Comments

Ship and Pod go boom!

I lost another ship (Sigil) and my first ever Pod today. The Sigil is no big deal, as it was crap fitted and is itself very cheap. The Pod however is another matter, as the Pilot, our little market mogul, had two +4 implants and three +3. That loss hurts. Luckily his hardwires were a bunch of super cheap crap. So how did it all happen?

0.0

In a brave (read: stupid) move, I decided to check out the closest 0.0 area, Providence, to see what kind of prices they had going. I figured it being 0.0, I could list a bunch of common stuff like ammo and make a good bit of ISK.  Sounded like a good plan anyway. Why I flew out in a slow ass hauler, instead of something with a chance to escape, well I’m not quite sure.

So I hit the final gate out of Empire, load up the grid in 0.0 slowly (uTorrent of the WAR beta was still running…) and see just one ship near the gate, a Drake. My first thought was cool, no gate camp. Stealth broke earlier than I had expected thanks to the lag, and right away the Drake targets me. At this point I of course panic, and instead of warping to the closest align point, I instead try in vein to reach the gate I’m at. Epic fail later, and my pod is floating in space. The Drake ate the Sigil for breakfast, and it was a wreck after just fire volleys. Still in a panic, dumbass me tries to get my pod over to the gate. Drake locks me, two volleys later, I’m in a station back in Empire.

As with most things in EVE, it sends you a cute email when you die. Actually, you send yourself the email, and it reads:

So you died? Well you have a Clone Grade Nu at Emrayur III – Moon 1 – Royal Amarr Institute School station. Enjoy your afterlife.

Afterlife indeed… While I’m not 100% sure I would have been able to align and warp away from the Drake, it would have been a better effort than trying to reach a gate that was some 15km away. As far as I could tell, the Drake did not warp scramble me. I did not catch his name or alliance, and nothing in any email told me who killed me (fairly sure I should have gotten something though…)

It was not the most costly lesson I could have learned, but it certainly stings, and reminds me to stay away from 0.0 for now. Perhaps with a cheap jump clone and a better getaway ship, I’ll once again venture out to that area and try once more to make some ISK. What’s life without risks, right?

Posted in EVE Online | 10 Comments

WAR beta, finally!

The good news keeps on rolling, and I’m finally in the WAR beta.

The download is through a torrent, and as I’m not too familiar with that (don’t ask) I don’t really know if I have it set up correctly. I hooked the modem directly into the computer to bypass the router, but I’m averaging a download speed of around 50kb/s, which is way below what I should be getting. As recommended, I’m using uTorrent 1.8. Anyone have some quick tips on how to boost the speed?

Posted in Warhammer Online | 7 Comments

Gamestop delivers.

I mentioned yesterday that I was still waiting for my SE pre-order codes from Gamestop, but they have indeed arrived today. Is it beta time yet…?

Posted in Warhammer Online | Comments Off on Gamestop delivers.

WAR beta and EAStore codes!

Just when I was begining to worry a bit about getting my beta codes from the EAStore, ping goes the iPhone and there they are. Score! All three of the codes from pre-ordering the CE are included. Now I’m left waiting on Gamespot for Aria’s codes from the pre-order of the regular edition.

BRING ON THE WAR!

Posted in Warhammer Online | 3 Comments

When playing the market in EVE really pays.

I took a quick two day vacation to Maine, just to get away and clear my head a bit after the recent job fiasco. Crap weather aside, it was a very nice trip, especially since it was only an hour away.

I log into EVE to check my market pilot, and what do I find? A extra 20 million ISK in his wallet. Again not an earthshattering amount, but not a bad haul for two days of not logging in. Just like skill training, sometimes the best gameplay happens when you are offline in EVE.

The current goal is to increase volume and sales to the point where they actually matter, which for me will be around 50 million ISk per day. Hopefully once my orders limit is a bit higher, that will be possible. So far however, I’m having a blast just seeing stuff move, seeing what prices work, and how it all flows. Great stuff indeed.

Posted in EVE Online | 1 Comment

Reverse WoW-thinking.

Working on Book 3 in LoTRO last night reminded me why MMOs are as great as they are. When you get a group of people together, and everything goes well, the experience is far greater than anything a single player game could offer. The big problem of course is when you get people together, and things don’t go well, it’s often far worse than any single player experience. At best you waste a lot of time, at worst you get reminded what High School was like.

A bad grouping experience can make a player jaded, and turn them into a solo player, even in an online world. WoW provided the perfect game for those sick of pick up groups, as you could now solo all the way until the level cap. While a nice feature, the side effect is that now 4 million or so MMO players in the USA and EU view PuGs as something to avoid. WoW has taught them not to group until the level cap, where it then forces you into non-committal groups (BG) or forced grouping (raiding).

One of the things I’m most excited about with Warhammer is the ‘open group’ system, along with Public Quests. It certainly looks like Mythic is trying to get people to play together again in an online world, to work together with strangers and not fear them like the plague. WoW had a culture of bad groups, so even those that might not usual bail on a group did so because that was the culture. Hopefully WAR will foster the opposite, and the mindset of the majority will be to cooperate. Undoing the WoW-mentality will be a tough hurdle, but hopefully Mythic has the tools and design to do just that.

Posted in Lord of the Rings Online, MMO design, Warhammer Online, World of Warcraft | 5 Comments

Quick LoTRO update.

Yes I still play LoTRO, just don’t have too much to say about it. It’s a very solid MMO that is well worth playing. It does not break a whole lot of new ground, or do any one thing particularly well (aside from perhaps using the LoTR license effectively), but its just solid.

Aria and I are currently level 32 and climbing, and looking forward to 35+, the spot we quit last time. I’m hoping I will be able to see most of LoTRO before WAR is out and grabs what I expect to be most of my MMO time. We will see…

Posted in Lord of the Rings Online | 6 Comments

EVE Market update, 100 million ISK.

Market Update time.

After a week or so of really focusing on the market, I’ve learned quite a bit, and made plenty of mistakes (which is kind of like the EVE mantra really). The good news is that I now believe my base of operations will do just fine for my little market mogul. Traffic seems high, it’s a minor mission hub, and it even has decent asteroid fields to attract miners.

Now my mistakes. If you produce 500 cargo expanders, don’t list all 500 in one order, even if you put them up for a good price. People buy them 1-4 at a time, and while you might get a few buyers a day, it will take next to forever to move all 500. What I should have done is split the 500 into groups of 50, and list each group at a different station, maximizing on those impulse buys that are too common in EVE. Why fly to the next station just to save 1000 ISK, right?

I also made some mistakes with my buy orders. Being the top buyer is often not enough, you also have to offer an aggressive price to encourage others to just take the offered price rather than list the item themselves. As long as you can make a decent profit, it’s worth getting more aggressive.

It total, I believe I’ve made somewhere around 100 million ISK in profit so far. A low amount compared to other traders, but decent enough for someone still learning and making mistakes. My current buy/sell limit is 53 right now, which is somewhat restrictive. In a week or so it should be much higher, and at that point I can really start to expand and think big.

Posted in EVE Online | 7 Comments