Former MMO blogger Tobold is having a rough year. First his EVE prediction is set to be confirmed as idiotic in just over a month, the industry has nothing for him to play and banished him back to the tabletop, and ‘soon’ the reality that Darkfall is coming back for round two is once again going to haunt everyone’s favorite thin-skinned, hyper-sensitive whipping boy.
Of course, a track record a mile long of simply being wrong does not stop him from posting. He is very tackle-titan-Gevlon in that regard, though with less blog-editing-after-the-fact. Today’s troll bait, which embarrassingly I’m going to bite on (in part because, as is most often the case over in dream land, the commenters that don’t get filter out beg for my opinion), revolves around keeping/losing subscribers.
Much like predicting EVE shutting down because “financial reports don’t lie”, it seems the old man’s memory has also lead him to forget which MMO he is talking about here. Because I’m pretty sure making a post about losing subscribers over the last three years, with examples such as WAR, AoC, Aion, LotRO, SW:TOR, and WoW itself around, picking the hardcore niche PvP MMO from an indie studio that remained a sub MMO all three years and with an increased staff is launching a sequel ‘soon’ is a poor choice.
But what do I know. I’m pretty terrible at this predictions thing, having been totally wrong about SW:TOR 4th pillar in 2009, GW2 lack of progression dooming it, WoW with WotLK, LotRO selling its soul, Aion being Aion, Rift 3.0, Tobold rage-quitting blogging yearly, etc etc.
So let’s keep his little post in mind 6 months after DF:UW releases (so 2035), so we can all link back to it and write glowing posts about how Tobold was right about something in the MMO genre. First time for everything right?
Or, after said 6 months, we can link back to it much the same way we link back to the EVE prediction, and have a little fun while DF:UW is down for the expansion patch. Assuming, of course, Tobold is not on a rage-quit cycle.
Also how is he still screwing up FBW, posting this on a Thursday?
Hardcore Casual 
Technically, if they close Darkfall as planned before UW launches, AV will have zero subscribers.
Losing them though, that is another dimension, and implies they have gone away never to return. I suspect that AV will have “lost” very little of its current base of supporters once UW launches.
I do have to admit, given past AV history, shutting the old game down before the new one is live does seem to be, at best, an odd move. The calendar is AV’s traditional enemy, best not to taunt it.
FFXIV is doing the same, isn’t it? It seems quite rational to me. Anyone who wants to play the new version isn’t going to balk at a few weeks without the old version, surely?
I’ll certainly give the new Darkfall a run if I ever get time, although that looks pretty unlikely to happen. I always meant to take a look at the old one sometime because the world looks really great in most videos I’ve watched and from what I remember Beau saying back around launch it was perfectly feasible to explore it in relative peace. If you don’t care about anything you’re carrying and just want to see the scenery then full loot pvp is no more than a minor inconvenience. Be even less of an issue with the new safe areas, ofcourse.
Not really sure why Tobold lays into DF so much – did he ever try it at all?
He tried it, IIRC. Said it took too long to level up skills. I guess he didn’t like the PVP either, as it’s not really his thing.
I lol’d :)
Syncaine just a small point – GW2 isn’t doomed. As for SWTOR I entirely agree with you and the latest F2P announcements are hilarious. SWTOR is effectively in maintenance mode and the last few people left at Bioware are basically trying to milk the last bit of money out of it.
As for Tobold .. he is what he is .. ;)
Doomed without progression, which Anet recently added.
My initial thoughts to playing GW2 at PAX was that the combat system was overrated (release confirmed this to me), the dynamic events were PQs (I think we can all agree on that now), and then my first concern after release was lack of progression (which again Anet recently confirmed and is attempting to fix).
MMO’s, even Darkfall are somewhat of a fix. You want to play it, but after being forced to stop playing for a month you notice you don’t really miss it at all. (At least that is how it went for me after I quit WoW and Darkfall) While it won’t lose them that many subs, I am certain it will cost them some. I don’t see what negative keeping DF up 1 more month would have.
Is it really a sequel? I thought it was the same engine and world and pretty much everything?
Same engine (tweaked), world, skills, crafting, sieging revamped.
You cannot deny that a complete reset won’t lose a few people. Now there is a period with no game. That will lose a few more people. Whether or they will be offset by old players returning and new players starting because they no longer have to play catch-up is anyone’s guess.
Looking at historical MMO sequals and relaunches, many have been attempted and only ATitD has been even slightly successful. Odds are against any MMO relaunch, but if DF does well then more power to them.