(More amazing work from Delpez, and just one example of the depth and number of interesting decisions  CoC has. The main comment I have is that more data is needed overall, which we will collect as more wars happen, but even with what we have here, our clan can use this info to improve, which is what I love most about the work done here and the game in general.)

At TH8 dragon attacks rule. Sure you see some Hog or Pekka attacks at the higher end, but for the most part dragon attacks determine who wins this crucial battlefield. Since I’ve reached TH8 I became more interested in the trends behind these attacks (if any), and I’ve been gathering data from the last two wars. There are a couple of caveats, however:

Unlike the overall war stats I collect from time to time, there is more subjectivity in these numbers. For instance, one of the parameters I’m tracking is whether a base was build against dragons specifically (Anti Dragon). In some instances this is very clear (see Nickio and Jonneh’s bases from the previous war), but there are also some bases where I had to use a judgement call.

Also, although I’m trying to reduce the dragon attacks to a number of parameters, the big missing is player skill. A skilful player can get better results with level 2 dragons than an ineffectual attack using level 3 dragons. These types of effects should cancel out with large enough data sets.

Finally, although I’m looking at a number of parameters, I’m not looking at combinations yet. For instance, balloons and rage spells in combination might have very different stats than when viewed in isolation. However, calculating all possible combinations is a huge undertaking and something I’m trying to tackle.

Also a word on the usefulness of these numbers. There is definitely an element of chance in these high level dragon attacks. Numerous attacks hinged on extremely small margins – sometimes an almost-dead AD will take out the last dragon attacking it, and the result is a 1-star. Other times the dragon takes out the AD and it’s a 3-star. No matter how perfectly you execute your attack, there are too many unknowns to be certain of the result: defending CC, location and level of traps, dragon (or balloon) pathing in 50/50 situations etc. Basically what I’m saying is that the aim of this analysis is not to determine a cast-in-iron strategy to succeed with dragon attacks, but to play the percentages. By focusing on tactics with better numbers, we will improve our margins, rather than solve high-end dragon attacks.

The parameters I’m tracking are shown in the next able:

Parameter	Description
Air Defence Strength (ADS)	Add the levels of the air defence towers. For example, a base with two level 5 and one level 6 AD will have strength of 16. This might be a bit crude, but I’ve found it’s a quick and nasty calculation that seems to work pretty well.
Base Layout	Anti Dragon or not? Some subjectivity as stated earlier.
Defending CC troops	Dragon or Ranged. Valk bases usually have some wizards and archers so I classified it as Ranged.
Stars	Number of stars achieved by the attack.
Attack Dragon Level	Level of the attacking dragons.
Attacking CC troops	Dragon, Balloons or Hogs.
Spells	Lightning, Rage or Rage & Heal. I did gather data on the level of these spells, but did not use this information in the analysis yet. Initial indications are that there is not a strong correlation between spell levels and attack results.
Balloons	I also gathered data on the number of dragons and balloons (over and above those in the CC). However, there are not nearly enough dragoon attacks yet to analyse the data.

Defence I’ve categorized by air defence strength (ADS). Bases with ADS between 16-18 are classified as high, 14-15 as medium and 10-13 as low. Once again, a base with a level 6, a level 5 and a level 4 AD will have an ADS of 15. Attacks I’ve divided into level 2 and level 3 dragon attacks. Firstly, let’s consider attacks against high ADS bases.

High ADS bases

Keep in mind that I’m only considering dragon attacks, not GoWiPe, Hogs or anything else. I’ve also excluded TH9 dragon attacks as the Queen completely skews the data. All attacks – friend and enemy – are included:

Total attacks against high ADS bases

	Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total	34	1.79	29.41

It’s pretty clear (and obvious) that it is very difficult to 3-star a base with strong air defence. Only 10 out of 34 attacks against high ADS bases yielded three stars. It is also obvious that the easiest way to combat dragon attacks is to level those AD’s. Next have a look at the performance of level 3 dragons against these high ADS bases:

Level 3 dragons against high ADS bases

			Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total			23	2.22	43.48
Anti-Dragon Base?		Yes	3	2.00	33.33
		No	20	2.25	45.00
Defending Clan Castle		Dragon	14	2.07	35.71
		Ranged	9	2.44	55.56
Attacking Clan Castle		Dragon	8	2.13	37.50
		Balloons	11	2.27	45.45
		Hogs	4	2.25	50.00
Spells	Rage		3	1.67	33.33
	Lightning		6	2.17	50.00
	Rage + Heal		14	2.36	42.86

In general, level 3 dragons have a slightly less than 50% chance to 3-star a high ADS base. From a defensive perspective, anti-dragon bases and dragons in the defending clan castle seems the way to go. For attacking, a quick note on the high Hog and Lightning numbers. They were usually used in combination to target specific bases – those with an easy to reach AD close to the perimeter. Those bases can easily be 3-starred by taking out the outer AD with Hogs and the inner with Lightning, leaving only one AD to face the dragons. Ignoring Hogs and Lightning, it seems as if Balloons in the CC have the edge over a Dragon, and the Rage-Heal combination outperformed only Rage spells. However, a lot more data is required before definite conclusions can be made. At the moment the numbers are probably skewed by skilful vs. ineffective attacks. Also, no matter what the numbers say, there will always be bases that might be more susceptible to different tactics.

So that’s it for the level 3 dragons versus high ADS bases, but how about level 2 dragons?

Level 2 dragons against high ADS bases

	Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total	11	0.91	0.00

In short, don’t do it! Not a single 3-star yet, and only one 2-star. It seems as though the damage output of high ADS bases are just too much for level 2 dragons. Only consider attacking these bases with low level dragons when there are no other bases available and if we are desperate for stars. In that case it might also be a good idea to try something different (Hogs + Dragons?), because a pure dragon attack have very little chance of succeeding.

Medium ADS bases

These are the bases with an ADS between 14 and 15, forming the bulk of TH8. First the overall stats:

Total attacks against medium ADS bases

	Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total	58	2.12	46.6

Much better than high ADS bases, but still less than a 50% success rate. However, one would expect level 3 dragons to do much better:

Level 3 dragons against medium ADS bases

			Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total			31	2.42	61.29
Anti-Dragon Base?		Yes	10	2.10	40.00
		No	21	2.57	71.43
Defending Clan Castle		Dragon	19	2.37	57.89
		Ranged	12	2.50	66.67
Attacking Clan Castle		Dragon	10	2.20	50.00
		Balloons	17	2.53	70.59
		Hogs	4	2.50	50.00
Spells	Rage		10	2.50	70.00
	Lightning		6	2.50	66.67
	Rage + Heal		15	2.33	53.33

And so it is! Attacking medium strength ADS with level 3 dragons seems to have a decent success rate. Unless the base was build specifically to counter dragons, in which case the win rate drop to 40%. A clan dragon in the defending base once again proved to be more effective at preventing 3-stars. As far as attacking goes, balloons in the CC with all rage spells seem to be the way to go, although more numbers will probably even out he numbers to some extend. Lightning spells also posted decent numbers, often in conjunction with hogs as discussed earlier. As an aside, most Rage-Heal attacks made the same common mistake by dropping the heal on top of the rage. The idea is to have the dragons spend as much time as possible within the heal radius, which is not helped by a rage spell.

Level 2 dragons against medium ADS bases are shown next:

Level 2 dragons against medium ADS bases

			Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total			27	1.78	29.63
Anti-Dragon Base?		Yes	11	1.64	27.27
		No	16	1.88	31.25
Defending Clan Castle		Dragon	22	1.68	22.73
		Ranged	5	2.20	60.00
Attacking Clan Castle		Dragon	10	1.50	20.00
		Balloons	14	1.86	28.57
		Hogs	3	2.33	66.67
Spells	Rage		1	1.00	0.00
	Lightning		6	2.33	50.00
	Rage + Heal		20	1.65	25.00

Not good stats at all, although the numbers are distorted by new TH8 players launching bad attacks. TH design does not seem to have a big impact at this level against level 2 dragons, but a defending clan dragon is a huge obstacle. It’s not just the damage of the dragon, but he usually holds up the attack for a few crucial seconds in the AD radius, which results in a ton of damage to the attacking dragons. For attacking, the Hog-Lightning combination posted the best results, although from very few attacks. These attacks are usually done with 9 dragons and 4 hogs, accompanied by more hogs in the CC. As stated earlier, this attack needs at least one AD on the perimeter for the hogs to take out, and obviously a giant bomb in front of the AD will ruin the party completely! Balloons in the CC seem to be slightly better than a dragon and only one pure Rage attack was launched.

Low ADS bases

Total attacks against low ADS bases

	Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total	30	2.07	36.7

Overall stats for low ADS bases are actually worse than against medium ADS bases. However, these numbers were affected to some extend by TH7’s attacking TH8’s. Although the dragons were level 2, the tactics were usually TH7. So let’s have a look at the level 3 dragon attacks first:

Level 3 dragons against low ADS bases

			Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total			8	2.50	75.00
Anti-Dragon Base?		Yes	4	2.50	75.00
		No	4	2.50	75.00
Defending Clan Castle		Dragon	2	2.00	50.00
		Ranged	6	2.67	83.33
Attacking Clan Castle		Dragon	1	3.00	100.00
		Balloons	6	2.33	66.67
		Hogs	1	3.00	100.00
Spells	Rage		4	2.50	75.00
	Lightning		1	1.00	0.00
	Rage + Heal		3	3.00	100.00

Not enough data to really make conclusions, except that level 3 dragons seem to follow the expected trend: 43% 61% and 75% 3-stars against high, medium and low ADS bases respectively.

Level 2 dragons against low ADS bases

			Number of Attacks	Average Stars per Attack	3-Star %
Total			22	1.91	22.73
Anti-Dragon Base?		Yes	7	1.43	14.29
		No	15	2.13	26.67
Defending Clan Castle		Dragon	12	1.50	0.00
		Ranged	10	2.40	50.00
Attacking Clan Castle		Dragon	7	1.57	14.29
		Balloons	9	2.00	22.22
		Hogs	6	2.17	33.33
Spells	Rage		6	1.67	0.00
	Lightning		5	2.20	40.00
	Rage + Heal		11	1.91	27.27

As I said before, a number of these attacks were by TH7 players just dumping dragons and hoping for the best. For the defending player, it once again shows that an Anti-Dragon base backed by a Dragon in the CC can be hard to crack for level 2 dragons. From an attacking point of view, Hogs in the CC plus Lightning spells once again did best, and balloons performed slightly better than a dragon in the CC. The Rage-Heal combination also outperformed the all Rage strategy (not a single 3-star in six tries!).

Summary

Not enough numbers to draw definitive conclusions. Also, even though these stats may point towards a better strategy, there will always be bases where an alternative approach is best. All combinations of CC troops and spells had some success, but some tactics might be easier to execute.

Dragon Level

Level 3 dragons have a less than 50% chance to 3-star high ADS bases, around 60% against medium ADS and 75% against low ADS bases. These numbers go higher if the correct combination of spells, CC troops and tactics are selected for a specific base.

Level 2 dragons attacks usually fails miserably against high ADS bases, and should only be tried in a crisis. The numbers are not great against medium or low ADS bases either (less than 30%). It appears as though the AD damage output at TH8 is just too much for level 2 dragons. At lower ADS bases a 3-star is possible, but it involves skilful attacks and some luck. So level those dragons! Also, by far the most successful strategy for level 2 dragons was to bring some Hogs (also in the CC) with Lightning spells. This attack works best against certain bases, but level 2 dragon stats are so miserable that it might be worthwhile trying such a high risk high reward strategy in any case.

Defending Base Layout

An Anti-Dragon base does work, with 3-star percentages around 10% lower than for normal bases. This does not sound like much, but can actually be a huge swing in wars.

Defending CC

Dragon in the clan castle outperformed ranged troops at all levels. From an attacking point of view this means that pulling the clan dragon and dealing with it out of AD range can make a big difference. It is not always possible, but be aware if the opportunity presents itself.

Attacking CC

Hogs work well against certain bases (AD at the edge), usually with Lightning to take out another AD. Otherwise balloons seem to have the edge, but it probably comes down to tactics and personal style. As for myself, I seem to do better with a dragon in the CC.

Spells

Lightning is a viable strategy, especially with Hogs against specific bases. Barring one exception, the Rage-Heal combination seems to outperform the pure Rage strategy. However, as with Dragons or Balloons in the CC, this might be an issue of personal style. When using heals, they should not be dropped in the Rage radius to maximise the Heal uptime.